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Black Tuesday:1929年華爾街股災 (Wall Street Crash of 1929)

經濟大蕭條(Great Depression)

1929年至1933年全球性的經濟大衰退,是第二次世界大戰前最為嚴重的世界性經濟衰退。 各國的經濟從1930年起持續到30年代末甚至是40年代末。全球性的經濟大蕭條從美國發起第一哨,1929年10/24-10/29華爾街連五天的股災席卷全球(黑色星期二的由來)。

 

資產階級的消費者勒緊口袋,消費大為減少10%。同時,1930年中一場乾旱重擊美國中部的農業心臟地帶。人均收入、稅收、盈利、價格全面下挫,國際貿易銳減50%,美國失業率飆升到25%。

 

美國經濟拖了其它國家。貿易保護主義者尋求自保,導致其它國家採取報複性關稅,進而加劇了全球貿易的崩盤。全球經濟在1933年達到底谷。經濟衰退的後果是大規模失業:美國失業人口高達1370萬,德國560萬,英國280萬(1932年的最大數據)

 

經濟大蕭條期間,約有200-400萬中學生中途輟學,自殺率增加,伴隨治安惡化。當時在美國各城市失業問題嚴重,排隊領救濟食品的窮人長達幾個街區!通常失業問題攀升,家暴和受虐兒的比例也會跟著升高!

 

經濟大蕭條的原因.導因
1)大銀行的失策

2)股市的崩盤:衍伸高階資產消費緊縮

3)供需驅動理論:全民的對經濟前景的信心指數偏低,導致消費和投資驟降,恐是經濟衰退的主要原因。=恐慌和通貨緊縮

4)美聯儲錯誤的決定:緊縮貨幣供給,惡化了經濟環境。

5)持續性的借款終使美國人個體戶的債務日增=消費熱潮在大蕭條時期結束。

6)諾貝爾經濟學獎得主佛利民:當時美國政府在大蕭條前對經濟做了很多管制所致,尤其是對銀行的管制,使銀行無法對貨幣需求做出反應,在通貨緊縮下導致經濟大恐慌。

image source

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相關報導

What were the causes and consequences of the Wall Street Crash? 

Effects of the 1929 Stock Market Crash: The Great Depression

 

The Great Depression: Crash Course US History #33

Overproduction and limited consumption

The 1920s saw great strides in production techniques, especially in automobiles industries. During the end of the 1920s, many firms were struggling to sell their production. In 1929, there were already warning signs with falling car sales and a slowdown in housing construction. However, people kept buying shares from the stock market.

 

Agricultural Recession
Better technology increased supply, but demand for food was not increasing at same rate. Prices keep falling  and farmers incomes  decreased.

 

Banking System 
Before the Great Depression, the American banking system was characterized by having many small to medium sized firms with over 30,000 banks. Many banks in rural areas went bankrupt due to the agricultural recession.Between 1923 to 1930, as many as 5,000 banks collapsed

 

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